What’s the weather?

It is a standing joke in my family (and many other families, I suspect) that weather forecaster is one of the best jobs around. I have no idea what it takes to become a meteorologist at any level–how much education, if there are any certifications required, whether there are continuing education requirements. What I do know is that there is no other vocation where it seems you can be publicly wrong so much of the time and still keep your job.

So, our family does not trust the weather forecast. Ever. And yet, we check it obsessively. Which is how I know that the weather app on my phone updates throughout the day, usually after the weather changes. I especially love when the app says things like “rain is expected to start in 48 minutes” while it is pouring outside. It is true that we live in the Midwest, where one of our local sayings is “if you don’t like the weather, wait a few hours and it will change.” I actually think that’s true of almost everywhere in the world (except maybe Del Mar, California, which is pretty much low of 60 high of 72 all year round). I get that meteorology is difficult, and maybe that it’s even more art than science. But good grief, it’s 2025. We fly in space. We have driverless cars. We can watch movies anywhere (no doubt including in space, if your signal is strong enough). But we can’t predict the weather accurately.

Maybe I’m expecting too much. What I really want to know is whether I need an umbrella and/or a jacket. That shouldn’t be so hard, right? However, even with all the advanced weather sensing equipment we have, all the “new data” that is coming in through the “new models” (as one of the forecasters on a local television station likes to say), the predictions seem to be off as often as they are on. No rain in the forecast today, but the heavens just opened up! Going to be hot and sunny, but now I’m freezing in my shorts! It will be a lovely fall day, but I’m overheating in my sweater and wool pants! (Not that I ever wear wool pants anymore. Or sweaters for that matter. Got rid of those when menopause hit.)

That’s why I’ve decided to focus on the natural world for my weather updates. Not those silly “redneck weather” signs that say things like “stick your hand outside. If your hand is wet, it’s raining.” Of course that works for current weather, but not for prognostications. And I don’t really need help figuring out the weather that is happening right at the moment. (I do have eyes. And hands.) I want help knowing what it’s going to be. And I think that nature provides hints beyond Punxsutawney Phil.

A red sky at night means that I can plan outdoor activities tomorrow–if the sailors are delighting, I’m pretty sure I can too. If cows are lying down, better not, however–that’s a sure sign that rain is coming soon. (And because I live in the Midwest, there are cows nearby, so it’s no problem to consult the herd when making plans.) Long term projections are no challenge either–I just keep an eye out for wooly worms. The more brown on its coat, the milder the winter will be. If there’s too much black, I start looking for cheap airfare to Florida.

Perhaps the next iteration in weather services should be computer models that include the information nature is providing. It’s raining west of here, there is a thick cloud cover, and my grandpa’s cows are lying around under the trees. Yup, storm is on the way! Alternatively, I could just take an umbrella everywhere. That might be my best bet.